RSB International's clients, such as one of the largest financial institutions in the world, have been prepared for the changes unfolding. Changes that took and still take so many smart observers by surprise. In our white book, The Big Reshuffle, we provide an understanding for the why and how – of both (a) the changes and (b) the reason these fundamental shifts surprise most (being stuck in the post-Cold War paradigm).

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In this 2023 white book, The Big Reshuffle, the CEO of the HFASA GmbH Olivier Scherlofsky laid out and applied our geopolitical intelligence analysis tool GAST and its key findings about the most likely scenario for the U.S., Europe, and the world system. 

 

In doing so, we have been able to predict ("most likely scenario direction ahead", see preview PDF below) among others, that, how, and why the United States will (a) internally return to conservative values and (b) externally leave its post-Cold War views behind, returning to Realism and great power politics, with a long-term focus on countering the rise of China. In other words: In the 1990s the U.S. changed the course of itself and the world, driven by an idealistic “colorful world” paradigm. In the 2020s this recent and unsustainable “one world” model is becoming history – not least due to America’s own frustration over the effects of what we call Idealism, and its moralism-driven attitudes.

Similarly, the white book predicted and predicts that and why Europe will (at first) feel overwhelmed and confused about such a new America and world stage, but then (eventually) fundamentally change and adapt to these new realities - while still remaining allied to the U.S. Since, (a) even a more self-reliant Europe is incapable to replace the American nuclear umbrella or the U.S. Navy – while being even more depend on global security and the world’s oceans (Europe economically survives based on large-scale overseas imports and exports). And since (b) on the other hand the U.S. will only be able to contain China, if the latter cannot split the West and pull Europe (in addition to Russia during the last years) into its orbit.

 

Understanding such geopolitical forces and the (often informal/implicit but powerful) grand strategies of key powers, we hereunder identify drivers that will reshuffle the world. Such as that the U.S. – under any of its Presidents – will most likely eventually rearrange its relationship with Russia, in order to enable its long-term goal to stop China from becoming too dominant. While expecting Europe to (again, like during the last Cold War) become serious in matters of defense, as condition for maintaining the transatlantic alliance.

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Note: Below synopsis of the book was added after the election of Trump 2 – one of the key events the book (published 2023) predicted, confirming its findings. Consequently, there was no need to revise the content: the deeper structural forces and trends in the U.S., Europe, and globally, as outlined in the book, still apply. Indeed, they are currently in the process of unfolding. For example: not only did our white book predict and explain the rise of certain European defense stocks, but even the shift towards 3.5% to 5% GDP defense spending in Europe. At the time of publishing considered “impossible” – for those many lacking the type of insights that our geopolitical intelligence approach produces.

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Whereas one might agree with below scenario outlines as well as the described logics  and effects of the new American and European directions, or not. But these estimates might at least help as "devil's advocate assessments". After all, staying ignorant to these probable developments ahead will likely hurt one side only – those who ignore the related trends and don't (like to) consider such scenarios. 

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The Essence of Our White Book "The Big Reshuffle" – In a Nutshell

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History unfolds in cycles. We are at the beginning of a return to Realism, geopolitics, and the relevance of the nation state. From markets, to international relations, to culture. In this book, the author merges geopolitical intelligence analysis with business best practice – into a guide for navigating through the Age of the U.S.-China Rivalry. The rivalry that will reshuffle the world – and has become one of the key drivers dismantling globalization.

I. The Most Likely Scenario Ahead: The End of the Recent "Post-Cold War West" Is the Beginning of a New West
 

In the most likely scenario laid out in the book, a reoriented (conservative, Realism-driven) U.S. will first renew and readjust itself. Then, secondly (almost in parallel but lagging behind in the process), Europe will (have to) run through a phase of fundamental change and adaption. An adaption that on the long run will enable the survival of NATO (“NATO Adjusted”) and a renewed EU. Resulting in a united Europe that is grounded in strong allied nation states. Nation states again focused on security, industry, as well as freedom and wealth of its populations – not global moralizing.

Based on that Western internal and external reality realignment, like during the last Cold War, this U.S.-led Free World will become prosperous, secure, attractive, and influential again. And eventually succeed in a new type of Cold War – this time after a very long struggle vs. China. A struggle particularly fought with strategic sanctions, tariffs and other anti-import measures, export controls, subsidies, investments, and industry & monetary policies. Backed by navies if necessary. And while international trade will remain vital, it will only be mastered by those prepared and positioned well. Billions will be poured into strategic sectors. And, like during the last Cold War, probably the next economic Kondratiev wave will be triggered. An outlook of an eventually successful U.S.-led (renewed) West that makes it highly advisable to be on America’s side. Recommending businesses, but also key powers like India and Russia, to consider well where they want to stay during the years and decades ahead.

This geopolitical reorientation is accompanied by a shift in believes and politics within the West: A new, popular, version of conservatism is on the rise. A process that started in the U.S. And will soon grasp Europe too: Supported by the U.S., the EU will drift towards the thinking of its rising Eastern members like Poland, who admired the “old” West – and never gave up the traditional Western values of patriotic-democratic and pro-business nature. Western values that back in the first Cold War had brought security, prosperity, democracy, while defeating communism.

II. Grasping the Deeper Structural Forces Behind America's Geopolitical Shift
 

Trump 1 was not an "odd outlier". Rather, his first term represents the harbinger of a new age. Trump 2 will continue and consolidate what started under his first term. And this new reality will be lasting and bipartisan: Any U.S. President of the 2020s and 2030s will (have to) continue pursuing the underlying grand strategic U.S. goal of “preventing China from becoming Eurasia’s hegemon”.

III. Understanding the Logic and Character of Trump's American Realism

The foreign policy logic of Trump, his administration, and the renewed, successful Republican Party is rooted in (a) great-power-driven Realism (not Isolationism!) focused on what’s best for America, but also (b) a commitment to, within the Western sphere itself, defend the traditional values of Western civilization – from democracy, the rule of law, free speech, and freedom of religion to market capitalism, patriotism, family, and the willingness to uphold all of this with a strong and credible defense. While at the same time (c) accepting and respecting other nations and civilizations, as well as their perspectives in a complex and non-uniform world. Initiating a shift in the center of the West that will also bring an end to the post-Cold War paradigm, where the West was moralizing while non-Western powers abused the West's Idealism ("Let’s cheer on those Western forces who feel responsible for everything, want the West to pay for everything, or push for its own de-industrialization. While we do the opposite.").

Culturally, the origins of this Trump/MAGA foreign policy logic lie not only in the early United States (from the Founders to Presidents like Andrew Jackson and William McKinley). But also (a) in the values of traditional American Anticommunism as well as (b) the related foreign policy school of Realism; both thriving between the 1950s and 1980s. At that time resulting in a paradigm that, among others, sustained the transatlantic bond during the first Cold War, enabling both NATO and European unity.

IV. A Europe (Forced by Reality) to Learn, Understand, and Adapt

Thus, this new American foreign policy still considers and values its European allies – but expects them to move in a similar, Realism- instead of Idealism-driven, direction; not least regarding defense burden-sharing.

And since Europe has no other chance to survive geopolitically than to stay close to the U.S. and thus learn and adapt, in our most likely scenario Europe will eventually learn and adapt – to the new world realities and a new America.

V. Bottom Line for Businesses

From a business angle, we expect risks and opportunities unheard of in decades. After all, as a business being smart and daring during dynamic times is historically the right thing to do; while being too passive or sticking with obsolete world views becomes dangerous.

For FI and corporations, the following aspects are crucial:

1. Analytical: Developing a minimum level of geopolitical intelligence (i.e., proper observation and interpretation).

2. Operational: Ensuring commercial and legal-regulatory resilience (avoid compliance errors, especially serious ones, and at the same time steer clear of unnecessary, business-restricting “over-compliance due to ignorance”).

3. Strategic: Having the ability to adapt accordingly in terms of positioning (investments, products/markets, etc.).

With respect to the specific consequences on the risk side, it is advisable to prepare for the following “weaponization of the economy” sub-trends in the coming years:
•    Sanctions strategies and related export controls
•    Tariffs and industry policies
•    Use of currency power

•    Other restrictions on trade and cross-border investment flows
•    Increasingly extraterritorial investigations and actions by U.S. authorities
•    A new “era of national security compliance”
•    The reemergence of the age-old reality that it matters under which flag commercial ships sail
•    Exceptionally high political risks outside the West (with decreasing rule-of-law reliability for property, operations, and personnel)

At the same time, it is important not to overlook major opportunities, which can be summarized as follows:
•    Nations and blocs fostering trade and investment flows “among friends” (enabling trade pacts previously unlikely)
•    Nations pouring billions into strategic sectors and supply-chain security
•    Rivalry-driven positive developments at the micro level: Individual businesses having exceptional opportunities, such as (a) gaining market share from competitors who fail to understand and adapt; (b) receiving capital or contracts from Western governments now spending generously for strategic purposes; or (c) moving quickly to act on potential “swing events” in the near future.

Thus, we recommend to don't view this geopolitical reordering only as a risk but also as an opportunity. Companies that wisely align their strategies and processes can become more resilient than their struggling competitors; while unlocking new markets and possibilities. In dynamic times, the smarter and faster prevail, not (necessarily) the bigger. In light of the current upheaval, focus on both risk mitigation and opportunity seizure, based on a new paradigm understood!
 

The complete white book The Big Reshuffle can be ordered at Amazon and other book stores.